The wording drifts across Popik’s citations. The 1951 strip has “there’s nothing like being sincere, whether you mean it or not.” By April 1954 it has compressed to “Always be sincere, whether you mean it or not.” The even if phrasing is already in print by February 1959 — the Salt Lake Tribune runs “All lists of personality tips include ‘be sincere.’ Even if you don’t mean it” — and the sentence reaches its modern shape in the 1960 West Virginia University bulletin. That is the shape that stuck.
The Truman credit enters the reference literature with The Oxford Dictionary of Quotations in 1992, with no citation attached — which is precisely what Wikiquote notes about it. Ralph Keyes flagged the problem in The Quote Verifier in 2006. Quote aggregators have gone on printing it under Truman’s name ever since.
The same joke has a better-known sibling: the line about faking sincerity being the secret of success, routinely pinned on Groucho Marx or Samuel Goldwyn. Quote Investigator finds no substantive evidence for either, and traces the remark no earlier than a 1962 Leonard Lyons column in which Celeste Holm relayed an unnamed actor’s version about faking honesty. Quote Investigator on the fake-honesty line ↗.