Widely credited to Musk, and in his style, but no interview, speech, post or transcript has been found with these words. The oldest print appearance this check found is Shane Snow’s 2014 book Smartcuts, which calls it something “Musk likes to say” and gives no source.
“The first step is to establish that something is possible; then probability will occur” attributed to Elon Musk (no primary source found; oldest print appearance found: Shane Snow, Smartcuts, HarperBusiness, 2014)
Can you use it?
? We couldn’t establish where this was first published, so there’s no rights status to give. Credit it as shown above — just don’t present it as public domain, and get permission for commercial or published reuse.
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In context
Evoking the world of Elon Musk — CEO of Tesla and SpaceX. Theme: "The first step is to establish that something is possible; then probability will occur". Atmospheric and restrained, cinematic directional light, a muted period-appropriate palette, fine grain and texture. Compose with generous empty space for the quote and a small credit line. No lettering in the image itself.
Minimalist
Minimalist editorial slide for the quote "The first step is to establish that something is possible; then probability will occur". Clean background, a single muted accent color, generous negative space, subtle paper or linen texture, no literal illustration — let the words carry it. Reserve clear space for a serif quote and a small credit line. No lettering in the image itself.
Provenance
Where the line actually shows up
Oldest print appearance found
Smartcuts: How Hackers, Innovators, and Icons Accelerate Success
Author
Shane Snow (not Musk)
Publisher
HarperBusiness, New York, 2014
Primary Musk source
None identified
Or, as Musk likes to say, “The first step is to establish that something is possible; then probability will occur.”
Smartcuts, 2014
Shane Snow’s wording in Smartcuts (2014), read through the Internet Archive’s full-text search. Snow presents the line as a habitual saying of Musk’s. He does not name an interview, speech or date.
2014: Shane Snow’s Smartcuts (HarperBusiness) prints the line, introduced as something “Musk likes to say,” with no citation for the words themselves. Internet Archive record ↗
Quote sites: Goodreads lists the line under Musk’s name with no book or source, and warns that its quotes are added by users and not checked. Goodreads ↗
Wikiquote: Editors placed the line on Musk’s talk page under “Further unsourced quotes” (“The following quotes do not provide an original source”). Its only reference is an Inc. list of Musk quotes. Talk:Elon Musk ↗
Quote Investigator: QI’s Elon Musk tag lists three investigations, and none covers this line. QI Elon Musk tag ↗
No speech, interview, post or book by Musk containing this wording has been identified, so no rights status can be assigned to it. The oldest print appearance found, Shane Snow’s Smartcuts (HarperBusiness, 2014), is a modern in-copyright book, but Snow is reporting the line as Musk’s saying, not claiming to have written it.
Rights status is our research, not legal advice — and copyright varies by country and edition. For commercial or published use, confirm with the rightsholder. See terms.
Fact-check
Why the credit is shaky
The line is everywhere under Musk’s name: quote sites, listicles, yearbooks, social media. Every copy traced here leads back to another secondary source, never to Musk himself.
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Quote aggregatorsElon Musk Unsourced
Goodreads credits Musk with no source and notes that its quotes are user-added and unverified. It also drops the semicolon (“possible then probability”), one of several wording drifts. Goodreads ↗
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WikiquoteElon Musk Unsourced
Not on Musk’s main Wikiquote page, which collects sourced quotes year by year. It sits on the talk page under “Further unsourced quotes,” backed only by an Inc. listicle. Talk:Elon Musk ↗
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BooksElon Musk (as reported by Shane Snow) Secondhand
Smartcuts (2014) frames it as a habitual saying, “as Musk likes to say,” without naming when or where he said it. Internet Archive ↗
✓No Musk interview, talk, post or transcript containing these words has been produced. The oldest appearance found is a 2014 book that reports it secondhand, so treat it as attributed, not verified. Wikiquote’s unsourced list ↗
Context
How the line spread
In Smartcuts, journalist Shane Snow uses the line in his discussion of what he calls “10x thinking,” alongside his account of Musk building a space company. Snow’s notes say he sent the chapter to Musk for firsthand verification and that Musk did not return anything. So the book gives no confirmation from Musk of this wording.
From there the sentence moved into quote databases and motivational lists, then into school yearbooks and social posts. Each copy cites the one before it or nothing at all. It may well be something Musk has said, but nobody has yet pointed to the recording or text where he said it.
“Or, as Musk likes to say…” — Shane Snow, Smartcuts (2014)
Explore
Filed under
More provenance-checked quotes on the same theme, each with its reuse status.
Elon Musk is an industrialist and technologist. He is the chief executive and largest shareholder of Tesla and SpaceX. He is quoted constantly, and that makes him a magnet for motivational lines nobody can trace back to anything he actually said or wrote.
For writers & researchers
Cite this
Best available source
Attributed to Elon Musk; no primary source identified. Oldest print appearance found: Shane Snow, Smartcuts: How Hackers, Innovators, and Icons Accelerate Success (New York: HarperBusiness, 2014), where it is introduced as something “Musk likes to say.”
This verification page
Quotle.info. “Who really said ‘The first step is to establish that something is possible; then probability will occur’?” Last verified 2 Nov 2026. https://quotle.info/who-said/the-first-step-is-to-establish-that-something-is-possible/