This formulation is known as Amara’s law. Quote Investigator traces a wider family of sayings and finds that Clarke’s documented 1951 observation does not make this same short-run/long-run distinction.
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run” — Known as Amara’s law; exact origin unresolved. Not authenticated as Arthur C. Clarke’s wording.
⚠ The slide-ready mistake: crediting this to Arthur C. Clarke. Use the credit shown above instead.
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Evoking the world of Roy Amara — American futurist. Theme: "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run". Atmospheric and restrained, cinematic directional light, a muted period-appropriate palette, fine grain and texture. Compose with generous empty space for the quote and a small credit line. No lettering in the image itself.
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Minimalist editorial slide for the quote "We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run". Clean background, a single muted accent color, generous negative space, subtle paper or linen texture, no literal illustration — let the words carry it. Reserve clear space for a serif quote and a small credit line. No lettering in the image itself.
Provenance
The source
Source
Amara’s law; exact original publication unresolved
Evidence
Checked secondary citation; primary artifact not independently inspected
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
The attribution decision follows the checked evidence and its limits. Checked evidence ↗
The cited underlying artifact was not independently inspected; the conclusion is limited to this evidence. Research and citations ↗
The precise first publication of this wording was not established. No public-domain clearance is asserted.
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Fact-check
Often misattributed
Clarke wrote about the conservatism of predictions, but that is insufficient evidence that he originated this sentence.
✕
Popular creditArthur C. Clarke
The popular credit needs the qualification explained above. Checked evidence ↗
✓Use the documented source wording and retain the attribution qualification. Checked evidence ↗
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Filed under
More provenance-checked quotes on the same theme, each with its reuse status.
Roy Amara was an American futurist associated with the Institute for the Future. His name is attached to the short-run/long-run technology maxim, although related formulations have a broader history.
For writers & researchers
Cite this
The primary source (Chicago)
O’Toole, Garson. “People Tend To Overestimate What Can Be Done In One Year…” Quote Investigator, January 3, 2019. Exact-wording attribution also compared with the Roy Amara reference article.
This verification page
Quotle.info. “Who really said ‘We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run’?” Last verified 9 Nov 2026. https://quotle.info/who-said/we-tend-to-overestimate-the-effect-of-a-technology-in-the/