Did Yogi Berra say "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future"?

Q: Did Yogi Berra say "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future"?

No. Quote Investigator concludes that this comical proverb was first expressed in Danish and that its author remains unknown, with the first written instance now known dated 1948, in the memoir Farvel og Tak by K. K. Steincke. English Wikiquote files the Berra version under its Misattributed section; the earliest linkage of Berra's name to the saying that QI documents is a 1991 newspaper article, and the wording quoted there was "I never make predictions, especially about the future."

Who really said it

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future

Not Yogi Berra — an anonymous Danish saying Unknown — a Danish proverb Earliest known in print 1948 · recorded by Danish politician K. K. Steincke

Disputed Rights unconfirmed

Quote Investigator concludes that this comical proverb was first expressed in Danish and that its author remains unknown ↗, with the first written instance now known dated 1948, in the memoir Farvel og Tak by K. K. Steincke. English Wikiquote files the Berra version under its Misattributed section ↗; the earliest linkage of Berra’s name to the saying that QI documents is a 1991 newspaper article, and the wording quoted there was “I never make predictions, especially about the future.”

Last verified 22 Jul 2026 · how we verify · spot an error?

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Disputed credit — copy with the correction

“It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future” Unknown — an anonymous Danish proverb. Earliest known written instance: K. K. Steincke, "Farvel og Tak" (Copenhagen: Forlaget Fremad, 1948). Not Yogi Berra; per Quote Investigator the author remains unknown, and the earliest Berra linkage QI documents is from 1991.

The slide-ready mistake: crediting this to Yogi Berra. Use the credit shown above instead.

Can you use it?

We couldn’t verify where this wording comes from, so there’s no rights status to give. Safe to present as an unverified or anonymous line — just don’t assert a specific author or source.

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In context

Evoking the themes of doubt, wisdom and time. Theme: "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future". Atmospheric and restrained, cinematic directional light, a muted period-appropriate palette, fine grain and texture. Compose with generous empty space for the quote and a small credit line. No lettering in the image itself.

Minimalist

Minimalist editorial slide for the quote "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future". Clean background, a single muted accent color, generous negative space, subtle paper or linen texture, no literal illustration — let the words carry it. Reserve clear space for a serif quote and a small credit line. No lettering in the image itself.

Provenance

The earliest documented instance

Work: Farvel og Tak: Minder og Meninger — Ogsaa en Tilværelse IV (1935–1939)
Author: K. K. Steincke (1880–1963)
Published: Copenhagen: Forlaget Fremad, 1948
Language: Danish; the familiar English wording is an anonymous later rendering

Det er vanskeligt at spaa, især naar det gælder Fremtiden.
“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”

Quote Investigator reports that Steincke presented the remark as having been spoken during the parliamentary year 1937–1938, with no attribution specified. The Danish sentence and QI’s English rendering are quoted here as QI gives them.

Quote Investigator: the full investigation

How the attribution drifted

1948 — the first written instance now known appears in K. K. Steincke’s memoir Farvel og Tak, in Danish, presented as a remark from the parliamentary year 1937–1938 with no attribution, per Quote Investigator ↗.
1956 — the earliest English appearance QI records is in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, where the writer explicitly calls it a Danish proverb rather than anyone’s coinage — also discussed on the American Dialect Society list ↗.
1971 — Niels Bohr is credited for the first time, in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, nine years after his death, according to Quote Investigator ↗.
1991 — the earliest Berra linkage QI documents: a Richmond Times-Dispatch piece quoting “In the words of Yogi Berra, ‘I never make predictions, especially about the future’” — see Quote Investigator ↗ and the Wikiquote Misattributed list ↗.

No rights status can honestly be asserted for the popular English wording: it is an anonymous rendering of a Danish saying whose author is unknown, so there is no identifiable work or first-publication date behind this exact sentence. The one documented source, Steincke’s Farvel og Tak, was published in 1948 — well after 1930, the current US public-domain cutoff for published works — so nothing here should be treated as public domain.

Rights status is our research, not legal advice — and copyright varies by country and edition. For commercial or published use, confirm with the rightsholder. See terms.

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Fact-check

Everyone gets credit except the person who said it

This is one of the most-adopted orphan jokes in English. Four famous names have been handed it, and Quote Investigator finds documentary support for none of them as originator.

Yogi Berra Misattributed

English Wikiquote places the line in its Misattributed section ↗, noting the earliest citations describe the proverb as Danish. The earliest Berra linkage Quote Investigator documents is a 1991 Richmond Times-Dispatch article ↗, and even there the wording is “I never make predictions, especially about the future.”

Niels Bohr Unproven

Bohr was first credited in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in 1971, nine years after his death, and Stanislaw Ulam credited him in 1976; Quote Investigator finds substantive evidence that Bohr used the saying in 1962 or earlier, though the exact date remains uncertain — but nothing showing he coined it ↗. QI also records the saying being credited in Danish sources of the early 1950s to the artist Robert Storm Petersen, a separate attribution it lists as pending verification.

Sam Goldwyn Very weak

The first Goldwyn attribution QI finds is in The Economist in 1979, after his death; QI calls the evidence for Goldwyn’s authorship very weak ↗.

Mark Twain No evidence

A 1998 book by Keith J. Laidler suggested Twain used the formulation, but QI notes no corroborating evidence is presented ↗.

The honest answer: nobody knows who coined it. Quote Investigator concludes the proverb was first expressed in Danish by an unknown author ↗, and the first written instance now known dates to 1948.

Context

Why this one sticks to Yogi

The joke works because it eats its own tail: a prediction is by definition about the future, so “especially about the future” is pure redundancy dressed as caution. That shape — a sentence that collapses on itself but still sounds wise — is exactly the shape of a Yogi-ism, which is why the line drifted onto Berra and stayed there.

But the paper trail runs through Copenhagen, not the Bronx. The first English appearance Quote Investigator records is a 1956 statistics journal where the writer explicitly flags it as a Danish proverb rather than anyone’s original quip — a tell that by then it was already folk property.

A prediction is already about the future. That’s the joke — and it was being told in Danish long before it was told in English.

Read the full story

Niels Bohr is the other great magnet for this line, and he has a slightly better claim than Berra: Quote Investigator notes that Bohr was first credited in print in 1971, nine years after his death, that mathematician Stanislaw Ulam credited him in Adventures of a Mathematician (1976), and that there is substantive evidence he was using the saying by 1962 — though nothing showing he coined it. The Danish cartoonist Robert Storm Petersen is credited in early-1950s Danish sources QI lists as pending verification, and the claim that Bohr himself pointed at Storm P. comes from the American Dialect Society thread ↗, not from QI — and Storm P. does not appear to have originated it either.

Sam Goldwyn and Mark Twain have also been handed the line. QI dates the first Goldwyn attribution to 1979, five years after his death, and calls the evidence for his authorship very weak; the Twain version surfaces in a 1998 book with no corroborating citation. The pattern is the usual one: a jokey orphan proverb gets adopted by whichever famous wit the writer finds handiest.

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Filed under

More provenance-checked quotes on the same theme, each with its reuse status.

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Dig deeper

Trusted places to keep pulling the thread — primary archives, fact-checks, and scholarship. We show how we used each one before you leave.

Quote Origin: It's Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Futurequoteinvestigator.com

The anchor investigation: Danish origin, unknown author, 1948 Steincke first written instance, and the later Bohr, Goldwyn, Twain and Berra attributions.

Yogi Berra — Wikiquoteen.wikiquote.org

Lists this line in its Misattributed section, noting that the earliest citations refer to the proverb as Danish in origin.

ADS-L: “It is difficult to predict, especially the future”listserv.linguistlist.org

American Dialect Society list thread with the 1956 Journal of the Royal Statistical Society English variant and the 1971 Bohr attribution.

Karl Kristian Steinckeen.wikipedia.org

Biography of the Danish politician (1880–1963) whose memoir carries the earliest documented instance.

Yogi Berraen.wikipedia.org

Background on Berra (1925–2015) and the Yogi-isms that make him a magnet for lines like this one.

Earliest documented source

Who actually wrote it down

K. K. Steincke

Karl Kristian Steincke, 1880–1963 · Danish Social Democratic politician, Minister of Justice and Minister of Social Affairs

Steincke was a Danish Social Democrat who served as Minister of Justice and Minister of Social Affairs and is remembered as a principal architect of Denmark’s early welfare state. Late in his career he wrote a multi-volume memoir, Ogsaa en Tilværelse; the fourth volume, Farvel og Tak (1948), contains the earliest instance of this joke that Quote Investigator has located. Steincke is the recorder, not the proven author — he presented the line as something said in parliament, with no attribution given.

For writers & researchers

Cite this

Cite this page

K. K. Steincke, Farvel og Tak: Minder og Meninger — Ogsaa en Tilværelse IV (1935–1939) (Copenhagen: Forlaget Fremad, 1948), cited as the earliest documented instance in Garson O’Toole, “Quote Origin: It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future,” Quote Investigator, 20 October 2013.

This verification page

Quotle.info. “Who really said ‘It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future’?” Last verified 22 Jul 2026. https://quotle.info/who-said/its-tough-to-make-predictions-especially-about-the-future/