When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong
This is Clarke's First Law, sourced by Wikiquote to “Hazards of Prophecy” in Profiles of the Future (1962). The source citation is strong; the original edition was not independently read.
“When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong” — Arthur C. Clarke, First Law, cited to Profiles of the Future (1962); wording checked through Wikiquote.
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Provenance
The source
Work
Profiles of the Future
Essay
“Hazards of Prophecy: The Failure of Imagination”
Source cited
1962; wording checked in Wikiquote's transcription
When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. …
The source book first appeared in 1962. Only the identifying opening and a clearly marked omission appear in the excerpt.
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Context
Why it mattered
The essay's title puts the target in view: a failure of imagination when experts judge what might be possible. The sourced account of the laws ↗ keeps this First Law separate from the famous later maxim about advanced technology and magic.
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Filed under
More provenance-checked quotes on the same theme, each with its reuse status.
Arthur C. Clarke wrote science fiction and nonfiction about scientific possibilities. Profiles of the Future presented his well-known laws about technological prediction.
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Cite this
The primary source (Chicago)
Clarke, Arthur C. “Hazards of Prophecy: The Failure of Imagination.” In Profiles of the Future, 1962. Wording checked through Wikiquote, original edition not independently inspected.
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Quotle.info. “Who really said ‘When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong’?” Last verified 9 Nov 2026. https://quotle.info/who-said/when-a-distinguished-but-elderly-scientist-states-that/